elections 2004 and some long-term trends
01/10/2005The completion of almost all of the work to calculate the 1º turn, together with the statements of candidates and other politicians show interesting trends in Brazilian politics. A better mapping of these trends is important for understanding the medium-term political dynamics, which includes the national directions in 2006.
A first question that can be raised is linked to the parties that have achieved the most significant growth. PT and PSDB are the parties that showed the most growth relative to the last municipal elections. To some extent, such a trend was already expected, especially in a context of diffuse saturation of the most orthodox ideas and proposals, that marked the political scene in the years 1990. however, what really stands out in this trend is the growth of the PT in smaller cities and in the north of the country. This will certainly have a profound impact on the PT party logic as the São Paulo hegemony within the party will be strongly pressured. The debate should intensify with the emergence of new significant leaderships at the regional level, which will be important for the electoral game itself in the next presidential elections.. The highlight should be Mias Gerais, which now has a mayor in Belo Horizonte willing to take flights that exceed the limits of the city hall and a toucan state government with presidential projection in upcoming elections, especially from 2010.
A second issue is related to the electoral process itself. The media gave great importance to the elections in São Paulo, that would be materializing the rehearsal of the presidential elections. That seems, However, only to the extent that the central clash is likely to occur between PT and PSDB. However, these elections showed a more “professional” positioning” by voters. These have an analytical capacity hitherto unseen, what can be perceived in the “forgotten” vote for councilor. At least in the big cities, elected councilors are closer to coalitions that effectively polarized campaigns, as well as present proposals for actions closer to their effective functions. Thus, a decrease in party-ideological strength should be expected in favor of a more pragmatic perception of the political function. Among other signs, we can mention the profound decrease in protest votes, generally aimed at caricature candidates with low political insertion capacity, representing an anti-political model. From a medium-term perspective, there must be a change in the behavior pattern of politicians, who will start looking for the accumulation of pragmatic projects that can emerge as effective solutions to real problems. To a certain extent, this has already occurred, as the changes in the exposure of the national agenda demonstrate., when the focus moves from macro-economic policies to unemployment, or out of the idea of “Brazil cost” to turn into cascading tax collection.
A third issue to be raised, and that is due to the previous two, links to party identities. The strengthening of the center-left axis, added to the great proximity between PT and PSDB (that seem to differ more in the way of conducting the questions than the questions to be dealt with), reinforces the trend towards political pragmatism, since the debate will effectively be around the implementations. What is striking about this point is that this action profile is traditionally carried out by the right, although the liturgical-programmatic content is currently in the center-left. This confluence will make the approximation of parties hitherto antagonistic more normal.. Aimless parties like the PMDB or in role restructuring like the PFL will still have to skate a little and offer support and exchanges unimaginable until then. In this sense, the paulistano case should present itself as a good essay, with figures like José Sarney and Paulo Maluf participating more actively in a 2º turn that, em si, shouldn't interest them directly.
Faced with these issues, it can be concluded that politicians who insist on acting in an orthodox way should lose space on the political scene, being replaced by politicians more connected to more everyday problems. This will allow for the emergence of new regional leaders, but that will still lack the necessary projection for higher flights, so that the old and the new will still live together for a while, although the new should grow at the expense of the old.
Moral of the Hist & oacute; ria: in times of change there are only two types of people, revolutionaries and conservatives.
Daily: The debates will find a more pragmatic and, so even, more technical. In addition to the inherent risk that exists in confusing the State with a company to be managed (losing the political dimension), there is an eternal risk of technifying discussions so much that politics becomes a place without passion and boring, ceasing to be a privileged space for hope.
Council Liter & aacute; rio: "O Brasil no tempo do rei d. Sebastião was reputed for such a spacious state, and so important, that many gentlemen and people of great prudence and advice represented to that monarch who passed himself on to him and ordered him to populate with all the forces of Portugal; but what happened?"
Sermon on the acclamation of d. Pedro I – Father Joaquim do Amor Divino Mug
Originally published in
magazine Author (www.revistaautor.com.br)
Pol & iacute; tica
Yes IV – nº 40 / October 2004