The international rating agencies: the new Brazilian voters

“The elections are still far away” –  politicians insist. The media, on the other hand, without many scandals to report, forget the total lack of interest that a large part of the Brazilian population has on such an arid subject, and incessantly bombards us with information about new growth trends or stagnation of election campaigns.

Aside from the pathetic scenes promoted by populist and irresponsible politicians, a new show seems to occupy the time offered to cover the pre-election process: the world’s view of us, translated precisely by those who should know us as we know ourselves – international rating agencies.

The world has changed a lot in the last decade, we had the fall of the Berlin Wall, the dismantling of the Soviet Union, the gulf war, the crisis of the former Yugoslavia, the adoption of the single currency in the European Union, the persistent Japanese crisis and, why not say, the attacks of 11 September and its response.

With a world as different as this, it seems strange to us to maintain the same electoral speech that we had in times past. Do we still believe in Collor's populist speech or Lula's threats of nationalization? The Real Plan has the merit of modernizing the Brazilian social structure (although with high costs for the maintenance of this same structure); which opens up a new myriad of possibilities and understandings of the world.

Before continuing, I would like to warn you(a) expensive(a) reader(a) that I'm not here to defend one candidate or another, but just to analyze the facts – something that will inevitably look like a defense of Lula's candidacy, however, this will occur due to the theme treated.

After eight years of PSDB government, entitled to re-election even in the first round, the PT seems to have learned the need to moderate the discourse and seek support from the center and, It seems, is doing this process with a lot of quality. With Lula's continued growth in electoral polls, as well as the indication that he will probably win in the second round, regardless of the opponent, some rating agencies wasted no time in exposing their ideas about Brazil: unfortunately, ideas that seem to ignore our reality.

Let's take a closer look at what these alarmists say. Dutchman ABN Amro (owner of Banco Real) advised against investments in Brazil after noticing Lula's growth in research; such indication was also shared by two important agencies, as americanas Morgan Stanley e Merrill Lynch.

Sometimes things seem so confusing that I don't know if I'm going the right way. Therefore, I invite the reader to accompany me in the traditional search for reason. They say that financial investments are fast and that they anticipate the facts, in his quest for profits; they also say that the Brazilian elections will only take place in October; I also heard that the new president will only take office on the 1stº of January. This being all true, why in April / May (six months after the elections, and there are eight of the new president's inauguration) advise against investment in Brazil? Real interest rates remain relatively high, we still have good market niches and the fiscal war is not entirely over, why speculative movements, who can leave the country in a few hours must drop all this in advance?

Something is not very well explained. Apparently we have some major interests behind all of this. Just it, nothing less than the president of FIESP, Mr. Horácio Lafer Piva, disse que os empresários “não estão mais preocupados com as cores dos partidos e sim com as propostas dos candidatos". And it doesn't stop there, Steve Ballmer (Microsoft) e Herbert Demel (Volkswagen of Brazil), declared that they will maintain their investment policy for the country, regardless of winner.

The position of the rating agencies seems to clash with the set of other economic actors – including on this list the conservative International Monetary Fund. Knowing the real reasons that led them to such positions is not easy, being more a guessing exercise than anything else, but it is important to keep your eyes open. As I pointed out at the beginning of the text, the world changed, but the intricacies of politics and their incestuous relationship with the economy seems to remain exactly the same.

Moral of the hist & oacute; ria: in blind land, one-eyed is king.

magazine Author

Pol & iacute; tica

Year II – N. 11 – May 2002