The beginning of the uncertain world
26/02/2019The multilateral order just for a while, but we were still living in their inertia. Now we are living in a world in which she clearly can not control the behavior of international actors, but they still do not know what the limits of unilateral action. Historically moments like these were very tumultuous and generated intense wars. The unilateral dialogue seems to be the way we have to avoid it all.
Since the end of World War II the world has been building a system with multilateral profile. Starting with the Bretton Woods (International Monetary Fund - IMF; International Bank for Reconstruction and Development - IBRD; and World Trade Organization - ICO, soon replaced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade - GATT), what we saw was the creation of several organizations and international treaties able to guide the behavior of international actors in several areas.
The apex of this movement occurred in the decade of 1990, period in which there were a number of conferences and international treaties. Opened by the ECO-92, cases were treated as women, home, human rights. These conferences have shown the world that cooperation could go beyond the institutionalized dimension, that is, that international commitments could be given also by the will of the international actors, more than the movement institutionalized in international organizations.
Since the early 2000 there is a clear reversal in this trend. The conference started showing limitations in advance and, sometimes, They reached back on some commitments. Following international organizations have also begun to show clear signs of crisis. Problems such as budgetary constraints soon showed higher, exposing the non-clarity of agendas.
The world began to change.
Soon this crisis of international conferences and organizations proved deeper, exposing the fraying of the power structures and actors' organization. more radical governments (left or right) They began to emerge in different parts of the world, culminating in the present day, in that speech more extreme governments have always international counterpoint.
The world is increasingly seen as a dangerous place, uncertain and threatening. It is up to each of us to protect ourselves, shut in. The crisis of the World Trade Organization (OMC) It is the view, but not the only. Not only is the international trade that is suffering, migratory movements, the quest for environmental sustainability, engagement with the advancement of human rights, all are suffering.
It is not the first time this happens in history, the world had clearer moments of a system multinacionalizado (I prefer the multi-polar terms, which implies potential clashes), others with more concentrated power and one or two countries. And probably not the last time in which we will go through a change like this.
The question that remains is what will happen as the international system reorganizes. More than who will send, It is the question of what is valid. At times like these military force is not enough, although it is an important way to try to create a new structure.
Just look Venezuela, although we can also look at Syria or Lebanon. You can use military force and take Nicolas Maduro's presidency. And? What happens next? More than Venezuela's internal problem is that presidents may be removed from power by foreign military force? A president who understands that environmental protection is something negative for your country and resolves to authorize the destruction can be removed from power?
The unilateral act we are seeing countries (even if, sometimes, seek the support of others - which are but unilateral actions coordinated in time) behavior is replacing the multilateral. This is true and should become something deeper in the coming years. But the faster we get out of the multilateral world, the greater the risk of having threatening results.
If the multilateral system failed, it does not mean that we should not press so there, at least, a more open dialogue between the great powers that may impact on the international system structure. U.S, Russia, China, India, European Union, Japan - and, why not Brazil - should establish channels of communication urgently.
originally published in:
https://mapamundi.org.br/2019/o-inicio-do-mundo-incerto/
The beginning of the uncertain world
26/02/2019Since the end of World War II the world has been building a system with multilateral profile. Starting with the Bretton Woods (Fundo Monetário Internacional – IMF; Banco Internacional para Reconstrução e Desenvolvimento – BIRD; e Organização Internacional do Comércio – OIC, logo substituída pelo Acordo Geral de Tarifas e Comércio – GATT), what we saw was the creation of several organizations and international treaties able to guide the behavior of international actors in several areas.
The apex of this movement occurred in the decade of 1990, period in which there were a number of conferences and international treaties. Opened by the ECO-92, cases were treated as women, home, human rights. These conferences have shown the world that cooperation could go beyond the institutionalized dimension, that is, that international commitments could be given also by the will of the international actors, more than the movement institutionalized in international organizations.
Since the early 2000 there is a clear reversal in this trend. The conference started showing limitations in advance and, sometimes, They reached back on some commitments. Following international organizations have also begun to show clear signs of crisis. Problems such as budgetary constraints soon showed higher, exposing the non-clarity of agendas.
The world began to change.
Soon this crisis of international conferences and organizations proved deeper, exposing the fraying of the power structures and actors' organization. more radical governments (left or right) They began to emerge in different parts of the world, culminating in the present day, in that speech more extreme governments have always international counterpoint.
The world is increasingly seen as a dangerous place, uncertain and threatening. It is up to each of us to protect ourselves, shut in. The crisis of the World Trade Organization (OMC) It is the view, but not the only. Not only is the international trade that is suffering, migratory movements, the quest for environmental sustainability, engagement with the advancement of human rights, all are suffering.
It is not the first time this happens in history, the world had clearer moments of a system multinacionalizado (I prefer the multi-polar terms, which implies potential clashes), others with more concentrated power and one or two countries. And probably not the last time in which we will go through a change like this.
The question that remains is what will happen as the international system reorganizes. More than who will send, It is the question of what is valid. At times like these military force is not enough, although it is an important way to try to create a new structure.
Just look Venezuela, although we can also look at Syria or Lebanon. You can use military force and take Nicolas Maduro's presidency. And? What happens next? More than Venezuela's internal problem is that presidents may be removed from power by foreign military force? A president who understands that environmental protection is something negative for your country and resolves to authorize the destruction can be removed from power?
The unilateral act we are seeing countries (even if, sometimes, busquem o apoio de outros – que não passam de atuações unilaterais coordenadas no tempo) behavior is replacing the multilateral. This is true and should become something deeper in the coming years. But the faster we get out of the multilateral world, the greater the risk of having threatening results.
If the multilateral system failed, it does not mean that we should not press so there, at least, a more open dialogue between the great powers that may impact on the international system structure. U.S, Russia, China, India, European Union, Japão – e, por que não o Brasil – devem criar canais de comunicação urgentemente.