Municipal elections and the presidential race in Brazil

The pol & iacute; tica Brazilian resumes gradually work, after the traditional f & eacute; year-end holiday. However, this year the pol & iacute; tica be & aacute; a bit different from that seen in 2007. This year, more than ccedil &; & otilde, concrete es by governments, we see the onset MAKE-a the election cycle having MAKE-election with the & ccedil; & otilde; es 2008, for local governments, and s & oacute; ends in 2010, with the election & ccedil; & otilde; s presidential.

The election & ccedil; & otilde, local es this year be & atilde; the relatively AT & iacute; cocks in fun & ccedil; & atilde, the preparations and articulates & ccedil; & otilde; s pol & iacute; toxic to the election & ccedil; & otilde; es 2010. Like this, on the one hand be & aacute; & ecirc the tendon; INSTANCE j á natural expression & otilde; es pol & iacute; optical seeking the extremes: to expose ultra-& ccedil; & atilde, or midi & aacute; tica (os cases esc & acirc; ndalos) and pole & iacute; tica racks (for cases of the ccedil &; & otilde; s & turned worse; s & ccedil election; & otilde; es and their joints & ccedil; & otilde; es). On the other hand, the end of the second and & uacute; last term of President Lula opens SPACE; it for a strong fight for poss & iacute; LEVELS substitutes.

In & uacute; last & inst acirc; INSTANCE, & Eacute; poss & iacute; vel say the presidential race j & aacute; Eat & ccedil, or in Brazil and it must have strong impacts on pol & iacute; local optical. Much of what occurs in the n & iacute; local level j á be á a sample of the trend & ecirc; TRENDS & atilde to master; the the cen & aacute; rio pol & iacute; Brazilian typical AT & eacute; the election & ccedil; & otilde; s presidential and, by conseq & Nuuml; & ecirc; nce, & Eacute; one indicates & ccedil; & atilde, the possibilities of cen á rivers pol & iacute; ticos to Brazil's p & oacute; s-2010.

The state of S & atilde, Paul appears as the largest col & eacute; Brazilian electoral gio, gaining in prominence and ability to proje & ccedil; & atilde, the (just remember that both Fernando Henrique as Lula, the two & uacute, past presidents of Brazil, & got worse; presid & ecirc; INSTANCE designed by S & atilde; Paul). At the same time, the city of S & atilde; Paul & eacute; Equally important j á which concentrates a lot of voters and electoral contributors (this & eacute; especially the case for donors people jur & iacute; tips, that is, Business).

I present below some cen á rivers today eat & ccedil; am to draw for the major parties / candidates in the city of S & atilde; Paul, something that can be compared & aggravate; s prim á US holiday in order to present itself as a term & FLYING; meters of the popular will and the winds pol & iacute; ticos.

Democrats (THE)

Democrats are & atilde; today at City Hall, with Mayor Gilberto Kassab, and eat & ccedil; am to envision new possibilities. Kassab, Deputy Mayor of Jos & eacute; Saw (PSDB), He took office when it came to compete and, shortly thereafter, take the state government. At that time n & HAND had cent á rivers to re-election MAKE-HANDS; j á the new mayor was a stranger among the electorate. Over time, Kassab felt more & aggravate; will at City Hall and rehearsed FLYING; the largest, n & HAND be limited to the only figure of transition MAKE-HANDS, the (as in the case of Cl & aacute; audio Lembo with Geraldo Alckmin in state government).

Almost reacion right á ria, which usually supports Democrats elsewhere, where S & HAND Paul j á are á taken by the Progressive Party, n & atilde, allowing the projection & ccedil; & atilde, the stronger the mayor Kassab with the electorate. Like this, Kassab by a hand or trying to re-election MAKE-HANDS, the, the other knows the urgent need to join a stronger party that has real chances.

The quest & atilde; the & eacute; that PT, PMDB and PSDB is & atilde, the involved in other games pol & iacute; ticos, glimpsing the election & the ccedil; & otilde; presidential es 2010, so that the Democrats duty & atilde, the stay isolated in this election & ccedil; & atilde, the repeating, ali & aacute; s, which j á has happened in n & iacute; federal level.

And & eacute; o momento, in that the DEM must lan & ccedil, air Kassab and that has little chance of winning (cen & aacute; s river & oacute; changes with expl & iacute support; quote from Serra and the PSDB), & Eacute; waited a further weakening of the DEM n & iacute; MOBILE & inch iacute; optical-election.

Workers Party (PT)

Recently, the current Minister of Tourism Marta Suplicy (PT, the same party of President Lula) announced that it would candidate & worsens; town hall. Within the PT seems one of the strongest and consolidated names and, apparently, It presents real chances of winning. Although it has been defeated when trying to re-election, for now the cen & aacute; rio it looks pretty please á vel.

If the other candidate is the current mayor, Gilberto Kassab (THE), your chances s & atilde, the very large. however, h á it is noted that the PSDB j á makes it clear that will expect formalizes & ccedil; & atilde; the your application to decide whether to continue to support Kassab or will Ian & ccedil, air Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB). no time, the main objective of the PSDB & eacute; ensure that the city government S & atilde; Paul stay in HAND the ally party, when n & HAND can be in the HAND the pr & oacute; prion PSDB.

Recently the PT lost part of their ability to influ & ecirc; INSTANCE in Congress, well exemplified by the loss approves & ccedil; & atilde; the renewed & ccedil; & atilde; the Contributes & ccedil; & atilde; Provis & oacute; ria about Move & ccedil; & atilde, the Financial (CPMF), I 2007 was respons á vel for raises & ccedil; & atilde; the approximate R $ 37 billion. Another sign of openness to negotiating & ccedil; & otilde; s & eacute; the rec & eacute; m-inauguration of the Minister of Mines and Energy Edison Lob & atilde, the (PMDB), in spite of all charges & ccedil; & otilde; es of corrup & ccedil; & atilde, which weigh about his son.

In this cen & aacute; rio, the city of S & atilde, Paul presents himself as an important element for projection & ccedil; & atilde; the election, can strengthen the capacity of projection MAKE-HANDS, the PT in higher col & eacute; electoral transom pa & iacute; s. Like this, If Marta Suplicy can win the election & ccedil; & otilde; municipal es, be & aacute; able to Ian & ccedil would a second time & aggravation; President and ecirc; nce, or even strengthen another candidate that the PT will lan & ccedil, air.

On the other hand, Marta one application, especially if it is polarized with a PSDB candidacy, Power & aacute; become an exposure & ccedil; & atilde; the PT as a whole. Depending on the development of campaigns and debates, the application power & aacute; bring many wear to PT, and hurt the party in the election & ccedil; & otilde; es 2010, especially if Marta miss.

Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB)

A leading candidate of the PSDB & aggravate; presid & ecirc; INSTANCE & eacute; Jos & eacute; Saw, covertly who played with the Alckmin indicates MAKE-HANDS, the PSDB to presid & ecirc; INSTANCE & ccedil the election; & otilde; s who elected Lula. For Serra is fortale & ccedil, the S & atilde; Paul, & Eacute; important that the current city mayor Gilberto Kassab (THE) re-elected. Like this, al & eacute; m keep poss & iacute; vel candidate & worsens; Geraldo city Alckmim (PSDB) out of focus VIEW & atilde; p & uacute; Republic, & articulates also enables ccedil; & HAND between the Democratic. This would occur especially in fun & ccedil; & atilde; the capacity that Serra has still influence the S & atilde Prefecture, Paul sent in his deputy mayor, Kassab.

The former mayor and current governor Jos & eacute; Serra has proven increasingly explicitly please á vel & aggravate; candidacy (re-election MAKE-HANDS, the) Kassab. For Serra best & eacute; continue Kassab than having Alckmin (PSDB), although it is the same party, n & HAND est á in convergence & ecirc, total INSTANCE with Serra. The worst cen & aacute; rio, for Serra, would have Marta Suplicy (PT).

On the other hand, na l & oacute; logic & aacute Cleave; ria, Alckmin if n & HAND the skirt, be á a natural candidate & worsens; presid & ecirc; or INSTANCE, or & eacute; poss RIVER vel, the state government. That seems to be the strategy & eacute; strategy that could offer greater internal stability to the party, Alckmin n & atilde, the candidate would & aggravate; town hall, leaving SPACE, the to strengthen Sierra. Secondly, Serra would candidate & worsens; presid & ecirc; INSTANCE, and in return offered support for Alckmin this sa & iacute; iff for state government. In & uacute; last & inst acirc; INSTANCE, it would mean the postponement of Alckmin projects for presid & ecirc; INSTANCE and could unify around a Party design & aacute; rio broader some of the most important leadership & ccedil, the PSDB election.

only noteworthy that cen & aacute; rio also & eacute; dependent is & ccedil; that the application Marta Suplicy (PT) get, which can for MAKE-air Alckmin entry in the race for S & atilde Prefecture; Paul.

Democrat Party Movement á optical Brazilian (PMDB)

Est & aacute; a position & ccedil; & atilde; very comfortable á vel S & atilde; Paul, It is a key partner in any NETWORKING & ccedil; & atilde, which wants to get worse &; town hall. Thus, as j & aacute; & Eacute; Traditional non-PMDB, & ecirc the tendon; INSTANCE & eacute; n & atilde, the dating pr candidate & oacute; prio, waiting for the partner (PT and PSDB) more to offer in exchange for support, both for specific & iacute; get the S & atilde Prefecture; Paul, as greater partnership, that lasts at & eacute; the election & ccedil; & otilde; presidential es 2010.

In the words of an important leadership & ccedil; local party, Deputy Michel Temer (PMDB/SP): & Ldquo; we hardly candidate. And we are a for & ccedil; significant. Our perspective more s & oacute; read & eacute; even making a alian & ccedil; a & rdquo;.

People linked to the PT & and worse; Marta Suplicy (PT) j á They began talks with party, while Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) also & eacute; m talking to the party, approaching PMDB's state president, Orestes Qu & eacute; rcia. Certainly the electoral weight of the PMDB be & aacute; critical to any successful applications & aggravate; Town of S & atilde; Paul, so that duty PT and PSDB & HAND if the effort MAKE-air to M á ximo to get support. And & eacute; o momento, the new ministry & eacute; river offered to Edison Lob & atilde, the (PMDB) account as an important bargaining chip offered by PT.

Thus, for now & eacute; poss & iacute; vel say that h & aacute; & tendon greater ecirc; INSTANCE & ccedil of approaches; & HAND between the PT and the PMDB, which strengthens the possibilities of projection MAKE-HANDS, the one poss & iacute; level & NETWORKING ccedil; & HAND between them for the presid & ecirc; in INSTANCE 2010. If this occurs, the PSDB stay & aacute; even more fragile and distant power. If this trend & ecirc; INSTANCE consolidate, it is expected that Brazil p & oacute; s-2010 will be governed by a replica & ccedil; & atilde; the current government. Certainly the charisma of President Lula n & atilde; being & aacute; a gift tag, so you expect a deepening of a din & acirc; mica pol & iacute; tica less strategy & eacute; gica and more everyday, with their exchanges and ccedil &; & otilde; s intended for individual attention of parliamentarians – l & COLLISION logic, ali & aacute; s, fairly present in both the PT and the PMDB.

Source: http://revistaautor.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=77&Itemid=48