In recent weeks the dollar has surpassed R$ 3,50 and the stock market showed significant drops. On one side we have nationalists who say this is all the result of pure speculation; on the other, we have the controllers of big capital blaming the “Brazil risk”. In the end, what is happening? Who are to blame for all this, Greeks or Trojans?
Not so much there, not so much here. Even though both have their points of support, there is a mutual misunderstanding, which further harms the current national scenario.
Let’s start with Brazil’s recent agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). For the third time in the Fernando Henrique government, we had to resort to the fund to obtain the necessary liquidity and not put our entire financial system in checkmate – em xeque ele já está, e há muito tempo. São US$ 30 bilhões que dão munição para que o Banco Central possa tratar com as ondas especulativas que estão aumentando em rapidez e tamanho. Enquanto em julho o Banco Central tinha por tática a injeção diária de US$ 50 millions, a partir deste último acordo com o FMI a atuação passou a ser decidida de acordo com o andamento do mercado, o que aumenta o risco da especulação já que uma atuação mais incisiva do Banco Central pode jogar o preço do dólar para baixo.
Mas esta não é a única razão que levou o governo brasileiro a buscar o apoio do FMI. There is an inherent fragility in the Brazilian economy that cannot be resolved overnight: closing external accounts.
There is no doubt that Fernando Henrique's two terms managed to achieve great development for the country, at least in economic-productive terms. However, This modernization process was accompanied by a frightening increase in the country's external debt (both public and private). When the first problems appeared, we tried to improve our balance of payments and even achieved a primary surplus, but debt services do not allow us to achieve a general surplus. Since we don't have a dollar-making machine, só nos restou procurar os dólares com quem os tem. And here our problem begins.
We cannot say that the world is going through a golden phase, with stability and surplus resources. The Axis of Evil continues to dominate much of the international agenda and the American house still has a lot to clean up, with the daily scandals about the makeup of the accounting balance sheets of large companies. If everything is uncertain inside the house, what can we say about the rest of the world?
The Brazilian domestic scenario is also not one of the most appropriate for the moment. The electoral disputes focus all the attention and are too pathetic. If it weren't for the candidates' history, we would have serious difficulties distinguishing them from each other. The government plans presented are nothing more than an exercise in rhetoric without any basis in the country's daily life.
An international investor, no matter how much you know Brazil (market analysts, generally, They are Brazilianists who understand Brazil very well, sometimes even more than many of us), There is always doubt as to what will happen in the Cabraline lands. If the Tucano government is not the best in the market's view, At least it's something that's already there, whose foundations are already known and this is why a Lula or Ciro government is so worrying for the market.
With that flea behind your ear, everyone fears that the country will not be able to survive in the coming years and is running to protect themselves, after all, our neighbor Argentina caused a lot of losses to international investors. And so, those who hold dollars show all their characteristics of good speculators of the 21st century: (1) are always tense and this tension is translated into seconds; (2) if something seems wrong, leave as quickly as possible, unless the return promises increase; e (3) profits is the only goal.
They are not wrong to behave this way, these are the rules of the game. And we are not wrong in saying that they are calculating speculators who ignore the existence of human beings in the markets they operate in.. To resolve this situation, We need to put the issue of equality ethics on the international agenda, which shouldn't happen anytime soon. Another solution, would be to reduce the country's dependence on international capital that only comes here looking for profits, but this has internal costs and it seems that we are still not willing to pay.
Moral of the hist & oacute; ria:if we still have a scapegoat left, why waste ammunition against reality?
Literary advice: "Porque os detalhes, how do you know, lead to virtue and happiness; generalities are intellectually necessary evils. Not philosophers, but rather the stamp collectors and amateur woodworkers who constitute the backbone of society" (Brave new world – Aldous Huxley).
Originally published in:
magazine Author
economy
Year II – N. 14 – August of 2002
No Responses