The energy crisis, in addition to exposing the immediate logic that has marked all governments since the end of the military period, also brought to light some of the main mechanisms used by the Executive and Legislative powers. Once announced, in an abrupt and rude way, the national rationing plan, there was no shortage of politicians with stones in their hands. Because of infrastructure chaos? Probably not.
In government, the crisis presents its most delicate aspects. President Fernando Henrique's popularity is not at its best and does not present many possibilities for reversing the trend of maintaining low indices. And this is true with programs such as Bolsa Escola and Saúde em Família (not least from the Ministries of Education and Health, respectively), which are targeted at the most needy.
A government worn out in the eyes of public opinion and with a fragmented parliamentary base does not present itself as an ideal partner. Few are those who come to the defense of President Fernando Henrique. Pedro Parente, for the leisure of the trade, appears on the front line, absorbing a large portion of the political wear and tear; This favors the hidden position of important PSDB names (leia-se "presidenciáveis") such as ministers Paulo Renato Souza and José Serra, beyond the governed Tasso Jereissati.
After the first impact of the rationing plan, the tendency is for the president to abandon his reactive position, seeking to change the focus of public opinion. Contrary to what you defend, should launch the tucano candidate for president in the coming months. Thereby, You can kill two birds with one stone: (1) launches the candidate with enough time for him to defend himself from government problems, e (2) can place the political discussion outside the Planalto and, with a little luck, far from Brasilia.
If the wave catches, governo e oposição concentrarão suas forças no debate eleitoral, diminuindo o destaque dos problemas estruturais. Thereby, voltaremos para os tradicionais espetáculos do teatro político brasileiro: agressões pessoais em tribunas públicas, casos escabrosos de corrupção e algumas mazelas sistêmicas.
Caso essa cenário venha a concretizar-se, o quadro sucessório presidencial pode alterar-se completamente em relação àquele que é hoje vislumbrado. Like this, a esquerda que ganha espaço e consistência pode ver-se tragada pelo roda-moinho da superficialidade política, perdendo o traço que hoje lhe dá maior sucesso: a possibilidade de ser uma alternativa real (para o bem ou para o mal).
Faz-se importante lembrarmos que as eleições de 2002 são também para governador e isso certamente influenciará as decisões do PSDB e do PMDB, quando estes forem lançar seus candidatos e, about everything, ao determinarem suas agendas de campanha. Mesmo sendo impossível prever os resultados de 2002, qualquer especulação deve levar em consideração o que vai acontecer nos estados (destaque para São Paulo e Minas Gerais).
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